FINANCIAL FORECASTING IN A VUCA WORLD

TRAINING OVERVIEW

In the Dixon Tech course, participants will gain insights into one of the most formidable realities in today's new economy, the pervasive environment of Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity, and Ambiguity (VUCA). Within this context, financial forecasting becomes an intricate task. Traditionally, spreadsheet models have served as the primary tools for finance professionals to apply their financial expertise. Additionally, the aftermath of the recent fiscal crisis has heightened the demand for proficient Financial Modelling professionals. Organizations, grappling with the challenges of the VUCA world, increasingly rely on these experts to strategically plan and adapt to the dynamic economic landscape.

TRAINING TOPICS

• Financial Statement Modelling
• CAPEX
• DCF
• Sensitivity Analysis
• Scenario Analysis

By the end of this training course, delegates will be able to:

• Recognise the challenges of VUCA world.
• Recognize the purpose of Financial Modelling and Forecasting
• Explain the key steps of Financial Modelling
• Forecast future firm’s performance and Valuation.
• Use different planning tools: scenario and sensitivity analysis.

TRAINING IS TAILORED TO

• Finance Professionals across the organization
• Head Office Planning Managers
• Budgeting and Forecasting Teams
• Commercial Managers
• Finance Strategic Business Partners 

TRAINING METHODOLOGY

The DixonTech training employs a variety of proven learning techniques to maximize understanding, comprehension, and retention of the presented information. The approach involves highly interactive presentations, individual, and group activities strategically integrated throughout the sessions, as well as relevant case studies and video documentaries designed to emphasize key teaching points. This multifaceted methodology aims to create an engaging and effective learning experience for participants.

DAY ONE:

FINANCIAL MODELLING AND VUCA WORLD

• The Imperatives of a VUCA World: a sound of Financial Modelling
• What is Financial Modelling?
• Defining the Inputs and the Outputs of a Simple Financial Model
• The Financial Modelling Process of More Complex Models
• Excel as a Tool for Modelling: Capabilities and Limitations

DAY TWO:

FINANCIAL STATEMENT MODELLING AND FORECASTING

• How Financial Models Work
• Collecting and Analyzing Historical Data
• Selecting the Key Forecast Drivers
• Modelling the Income Statement
• Modelling the Balance Sheet
• Modelling Interest and Circular References
• Modelling the Cash Flow Statement

DAY THREE:

PERFORMANCE FORECASTING

• Designing a Dashboard-like Control Panel
• Basic Statistical Methods Used for Forecasting
• Forecasting Sales: Bottom-up Versus Top-down Forecasting
• Forecasting Costs
• Forecasting CAPEX and Depreciation
• Forecasting Funding Needs

DAY FOUR:

BUSINESS VALUATION

• Valuation Approaches
• Steps for Applying the DCF Method
• Rewriting Financial Statements – Calculation of Free Cash Flows
• Calculating the Weighted Average Cost of Capital
• Estimating the Terminal Value

DAY FIVE:

PLANNING FOR UNCERTAINTY

• One-Dimensional and 2-Dimensional Sensitivity Analysis
• Choosing the Variables to Change
• Modelling Example
• Interpreting the Results
• Scenario Analysis Example